OTTAWA — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is said to be reflecting on his future over the holidays after the resignation of his top cabinet minister, Chrystia Freeland, in mid-December. The bombshell move prompted a fresh wave of calls for Trudeau to step down as Liberal leader from inside and outside the caucus.
With MPs set to return to the House of Commons on Jan. 27, the Liberal grip on power appears tenuous. The NDP, which has been a steady ally of the minority government since the 2021 election, is no longer planning to support the Liberals.
Here is a look at some of the scenarios that could play out in coming weeks:
Regardless of whether Trudeau resigns as Liberal leader, the government could seek prorogation to end all House of Commons business.
If Gov. Gen. Mary Simon honors the prorogation request, all outstanding legislation effectively dies on the order paper.
Once the House reconvenes, a new throne speech would set out the government’s fresh legislative agenda. In addition, legislation that was in progress before prorogation could potentially be revived.
In 2008, then-prime minister Stephen Harper notably prorogued Parliament shortly before a non-confidence vote that could have seen his minority Conservative government defeated and replaced by an NDP-Liberal coalition supported by the Bloc Québécois.
The Conservatives, Bloc Québécois and NDP all say they are ready to bring down the Liberal government through a non-confidence vote.
Passage of a non-confidence motion in the House of Commons could trigger an immediate election campaign.
The Liberals have survived previous Conservative non-confidence motions with support from the NDP. It appears that will no longer be the case. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh says his party will bring forward its own non-confidence motion at the earliest possible time, no matter who is Liberal leader.
The Conservatives, NDP, and Bloc Québécois will all get opposition days before March 26, when they are allowed to introduce business like non-confidence motions.